リサーチリーダー

研究員　James Brady

 

研究目的

世界の人口増に伴い、日本やアジア等では食糧の安全保障が課題となりつつあること、食糧生産物の輸送時に発生する環境汚染に伴うコスト問題により“地産地消”がより求められていること、農業技術開発の進展が生産高の拡大や新たな生産手法開発につながり都市部における農業を促進する側面もあること等を背景に、『都市インフラとしての食糧供給システム』について考察し、それを改善する方法を探る。

RESEARCH LEADER:

James Brady，? Research Fellow，? APIR

 

研究目的

Japanese agriculture: Pathways to a sustainable， trade-oriented future (日本における持続可能な貿易志向型農業の展望)

 

研究内容

This research examines Japanese agriculture and its potential for achieving an enhanced role in international trade in the Asia-Pacific region in the coming decades. A fundamental reorientation of the sector is more urgent than ever， since a shrinking home market， an expanding regional market and a worsening domestic fiscal outlook imply that Japan’s farming sector should become more export-oriented if it is to become sustainable. Inherent features like quality， taste， and safety mean that Japan’s food products could increase their share of the high-value segment of the growing international food market.
Two research stages were completed in fiscal 2014: (1) preliminary investigations into current trends and recent innovations in the agriculture sector and (2) an online survey of policy preference determinants. In fiscal 2015， the stages of the research will be organised as follows: (3) agriculture as an export sector?lessons from Europe; (4) agriculture as an import sector?lessons from Japanese manufacturing companies; (5) creating pathways to a trade-oriented future.

 

期待される成果と社会還元のイメージ

It is expected that this research will provide useful data about current trends in agriculture and relevant comparative information regarding exports and imports from the cases of the EU policy reforms and MNC production networks. It will also produce nuanced policy recommendations for achieving a more prosperous and sustainable agricultural sector.
Corporations and those engaged in farming will find the report useful both for better understanding the current situation in Japanese agriculture and for understanding the most promising growth areas for the future， including through case studies. Economic bodies will find it useful for its neutral analysis of consumer attitudes， and indications of potential and pathways for future growth.

 

 

リサーチリーダー

研究員　James Brady

 

研究目的

This research examines Japanese agriculture and its potential for achieving an increased role in international trade in the Asia-Pacific region in the coming decades. Various domestic policy reforms in recent years have focused on making changes to mitigate the decline of a sector that has deep structural weaknesses and is internationally uncompetitive. However， a fundamental reorientation of the sector is more urgent than ever， since a shrinking home market， an expanding regional market and a worsening domestic fiscal outlook imply that Japan’s farming sector should become export-oriented if it is to become sustainable. Although costly reform policies have so far failed， inherent features like quality， taste， and safety mean that Japan’s agricultural products could significantly increase their share of the high-value segment of the growing international food market， just as many expensive Japanese ‘brand’ goods have become highly sought after by ‘new rich’ consumers in growing Asian countries.

With this as a starting point， the title for the project is “Japanese agriculture: pathways to a sustainable， trade-oriented future”. Following on from the fiscal 2014 research stages (1) preliminary investigations into current trends and recent innovations in the agriculture sector and (2) an online survey of policy preference determinants， the stages of the research in fiscal 2015 will be organised as follows: (3) agriculture as an export sector?lessons from Europe; (4) agriculture as an import sector?lessons from Japanese manufacturing companies; (5) creating pathways to a trade-oriented future. Stages 3-5 are scheduled for completion by March 2016.

 

研究内容

1. Agriculture as an export sector?lessons from Europe: The European agriculture sector for many decades was high-cost and internationally uncompetitive. However， following reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in recent years， EU agriculture has become a net exporting sector since 2010. Some similarities exist between Japan and major European countries， such as the prominent place of agriculture in society in France， and the factor endowments in the Netherlands. The aim of this stage of the research is to examine in detail the successful policy reforms in EU agriculture， to find lessons applicable to the case of Japan.

2. Agriculture as an import sector?lessons from Japanese manufacturing companies:?????? Given Japan’s factor endowments， high levels of imports may be unavoidable in future， even if world food markets became more unpredictable. The manufacturing production networks developed by Japanese multinational corporations may offer lessons for developing overseas partnerships between Japanese farmers/firms to produce agricultural products matching Japanese standards and tastes elsewhere in southeast Asia， for export to the Japanese market; in fact， some developments are already starting in this area. This stage of the research will examine the potential of “agricultural production networks” linking Japan and its Asia-Pacific neighbours.

3. Creating pathways to a trade-oriented future: The current Abe II administration has set as a policy goal doubling the value of agricultural exports by 2020， although previous governments (including Abe I) have set and missed similar policy goals in the past. Paying attention to the complex interplay of interests and preferences in the domestic agriculture sector， ongoing structural problems， and developments in TPP negotiations， this stage of the study will draw together the data and findings of previous stages of the project to create a fresh set of policy proposals that show achievable pathways to a more trade-oriented and economically sustainable future for the agriculture sector in Japan.? ?

 

期待される成果と社会還元のイメージ

Corporations and those engaged in farming will find the report useful both for better understanding the current situation in Japanese agriculture and for understanding the most promising growth areas for the future， including through case studies. Economic associations will find it useful for its neutral analysis of consumer attitudes， and indications of potential growth areas.

リサーチリーダー

研究統括　林　敏彦

 

研究目的

これまでに国連の2012年版人口推計をベースとして、アジア太平洋を含む世界180カ国の一人当たりGDPを2100年まで予測したデータベース（DB）を構築し、APIRのウェブサイトで公開すると共に、そのDBを活用した資料をAPIRフォーラムやイラク、韓国、米国、英国、タイ、オーストラリア、ミャンマーなど多くの国からの訪問客に提供し、学術論文としても発表してきた。

国連の人口推計は２年ごとに改定予定で、今年前半には2014年版が発表されることになっている。改定値の発表に伴い、APIRのDBを再計算、再推定の上、アップデートする。

新しいDBは、アップデートされたデータに基づいて、「中所得国の罠」（高中所得国における経済発展上の壁）が本当に存在するのかを明らかにし、比較分析によって中所得国の将来的経済発展の可能性を予測することができよう。

データベース改定作業が年度内に終われば、派生的に生まれると期待される分析と合わせてその結果を随時ホームページに掲載する。また、予測結果は関西企業が海外進出時にカントリーリスクを評価する上で参考になると思われるため、メディア、シンポジウム、新聞記事等を通じて内外に発信する。

研究内容

現地への出張調査は行わず、国ごとに異なる人口とGDPとの統計的関係から、将来の一人当たりGDPをできるだけ長期にわたって予測する。

21世紀中葉までのG７など主要国に関する長期予測は、IMFや世界銀行においても行われているが、その多くは直近数年のトレンドに基づいたナイーブな予測となっているため、人口大転換の影響を考慮に入れない極めて楽観的な予測となっている。本研究がアップデートしようとしているDBは、基礎となるモデルがオリジナルであるだけでなく、カバーする国の多さと予測期間の長さにおいて世界のいかなる機関の予測よりも包括的であり、他のシンクタンク等の予測に対抗する軸を提供する。

 

リサーチャー

James Brady　APIR研究員

 

インターン

Jose Tiusonco

金　賢九

 

期待される成果と社会還元のイメージ

「APIR世界経済超長期予測２０１５年版」データベースおよびDP「アジアにおける中所得国の罠」を公表予定。また、これらの成果に基づいたワークショップを開催。

超長期データベースは、研究者、国際機関、経済団体等が世界経済の長期見通しを立てる上で有用であり、企業にとっては海外進出戦略の立案上参考になる。